If I were a betting man, I’d put money on Huckabee to “place” in the ’08 race.
After hearing and seeing Governor Huckabee speak in Exeter on Saturday, November 10, 2007 I’m sure he will be on the Republican ballot for the general election. There are a couple reasons why I believe this. First, the large turnout at the event is a sign he’s gaining in popularity in NH. Although the size of the turnout doesn’t necessarily equate to popularity (I’ve been to several other candidates’ events and many of the people in attendance were either campaign staff, reporters, supporters who followed the candidate from event to event, or friends & family of the host), the turnout in Exeter is good evidence his popularity is increasing.
The event was hosted by Exeter State Reps Lee & Matt Quandt. When Matt & Lee entered the room, I overheard them comment not only about the size of the crowd but that there were so many new faces in it. In addition, when I left the event, I noticed that all but one car in the parking lot had New Hampshire license plates (many times there are a lot of supporters or campaign workers who come up from MA). Not bad for a candidate who has not yet run TV ads or sent mass mailings to NH registered republican & independent voters.
The second reason I believe Governor Huckabee will be the Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate is his ability to connect with the “Reagan republicans”. The Governor highlighted three issues during the event, two of which I haven’t heard any candidates, republican or democrat, discuss that I believe will attract many Reagan republicans. The three issues were energy independence, American manufacturing and food from foreign countries. Although only one of these three issues may be on the minds of New Hampshire residents (thanks to almost $3 dollar a gallon heating oil), all three will issues will resonant well with voters in the Midwest (who have been hit hard with the lose of manufacturing jobs overseas and who have the most to gain with alternate energy sources and providing a safe American food supply).
The Governor stated he believes energy independence is a national security issue (he’s the first candidate I heard put this emphasis on the issue) and will implement a plan to ensure the country becomes energy independent in 10-years. He also mentioned one of the reasons why we’re losing manufacturing jobs, that he will address, are foreign tariffs that make American products non-competitive. In addition to his positions that will attract many Midwest voters, the fact that he’s a NRA card carrying Baptist minister will take him far in the southern states.
There was one statement from Governor Huckabee, which reminded me of my one reservation of him that sent shivers down my spine. I don’t recall his exact words but it was basically how he described his political personality – it reminded me of George Bush calling himself a “compassionate conservative”. My one concern with Governor Huckabee, which wasn’t discussed during the event, is my belief that his “compassionate conservative” beliefs will lead to an uncompromising position of amnesty for illegal immigrants.
My one bit of advice to the Governor would be to avoid any comparisons to President Bush. Based on his communications skills and the way he connected with the crowd at the event, any comparisons should be few and far between.